Date/Time
Date(s) - April 1, 2022
3:00 pm - 4:00 pm

Location
BSB 103, Behavioral Sciences Building

Categories No Categories

Join the Department of Economics and Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics (DARE) for our Spring 2022 Seminar Series.

Friday, April 1| 3-4 p.m.

Behavioral Sciences 103

David Kelly

Professor of Economics, University of Miami

Learn more: https://people.miami.edu/profile/dkelly@miami.edu

“Solar Geoengineering, Learning and Experimentation”

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28442/w28442.pdf 

Abstract:

Solar geoengineering (SGE) can combat climate change by directly reducing temperatures. Both
SGE and the climate itself are surrounded by great uncertainties. Implementing SGE affects
learning about these uncertainties. We model endogenous learning over two uncertainties: the
sensitivity of temperatures to carbon concentrations (the climate sensitivity), and the
effectiveness of SGE in lowering temperatures. We present both theoretical and simulation results
from an integrated assessment model, focusing on the informational value of SGE
experimentation. Surprisingly, under current calibrated conditions, SGE deployment slows
learning, causing a less informed decision. For any reasonably sized experimental SGE
deployment, the temperature change becomes closer to zero, and thus more obscured by noisy
weather shocks. Still, some SGE use is optimal despite, not because of, its informational value.
The optimal amount of SGE is very sensitive to beliefs about both uncertainties.