Category Archives: The Colorado Economy

The Rocky Mountain Research Data Center (RMRDC)

The RMRDC allows statistical analysis of economic, population, and health data collected internally and confidentially by federal statistical agencies. These data are NOT otherwise available for public use. It is a physical laboratory

located in Boulder, set up according to the guidelines of the Census Bureau to ensure the data are protected and used only in ways that minimize the risks of unlawful disclosures.

Economic Data: Censuses and surveys of business establishments and firms. Linked Business and Household Data combine federal and state administrative data on employers and employees with core Census Bureau censuses and surveys.

Population Data: Censuses and surveys of households and individuals includes all records and complete geography (in many cases down to the block). Items such as income are not topcoded. Individual identifiers such as name, address, and social security numbers are not included.

Health Data: Restricted data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), including various surveys that have been linked with death records, Medicare and Medicaid enrollment and claims, and Social Security benefits.

For additional information, please view the link from September 29, 2016 presentation: Rocky Mtn Fed Statistical Data Center

Information regarding CSU’s participation in the Center, please contact Anita Pena at:

Anita.Pena@ColoState.EDU

970-491-0821

Colorado economy facing headwinds in coming years

Colorado economy facing headwinds in coming years    

PUBLISHED: | UPDATED:

 

Colorado’s economy will continue to slow this year and next before ramping up again in 2018, according to a quarterly economic update from the Colorado Legislative Council released Monday.

Weakening exports, soft commodity prices, high housing costs and a tight labor market will continue to weigh on economic growth in Colorado, but they are unlikely to derail it.

“Our forecast calls for a modest rate of expansion through 2017,” said Natalie Mullis, chief economist at the council. “The risks of recession are rising.”

 

read full article here

COIN: Finding tech workers still an issue

COIN: Finding tech workers still an issue, as is rising housing costs

Certification schools, outreach to women, millennials boost qualified tech workforce

When the Colorado Innovation Network published its first talent report in 2012, it noted a startling decline in students pursuing degrees in science, technology, engineering and math. That’s still a concern, but COIN took a different approach with its new report Tuesday. Within the top-jobs category of careers with higher wages and growth, 55 percent are STEM-related. “What has changed from four years ago is how we look at that talent and recognize how it moves forward,” said Anna Ewing, executive director of COIN, a privately funded organization launched by Gov. John Hickenlooper in 2011. “The influx of millennials is a very impactful trend on the talent landscape. People want to come here and work from a lifestyle perspective. But that puts more pressure on housing and transportation.” COIN, which opened its two-day summit Tuesday, is less a fixer of problems than an identifier of issues. The report cites many things for the community to consider, she said. “It’s going to necessitate that employers get more creative in how they keep employees engaged,” Ewing said. “With generational differences in the workforce and cultural changes, workers want flexibility. They want technology tools and to customize their own career path.” The disconnect between traditional college degrees and employers has spurred “badging certification” programs, such as Denver’s Galvanize, which trains students to become software developers with an entrepreneurial edge that tech companies are seeking.

COIN researchers interviewed Chris Onan, co-founder of Galvanize, which has graduated 200 students. Of its data-science grads, 93 percent found a job within six months and averaged a $115,000 starting salary. Full-stack grads started at $73,000, and 98 percent found jobs within six months. The company has made efforts to reach women, veterans and minorities. It expects 500 students to go through its program this year, but that’s not enough to meet demand, said Mark Saldaña, Galvanize’s marketing manager. “Galvanize is going to have to scale (up) to meet employer demand for talent and student demand for technical skills in the coming years,” he said. “We’re partnering with organizations like IBM and (President Barack) Obama’s TechHire initiative to fill the skills gap.”

Stephan Weiler, a Colorado State University economics professor, worked on earlier COIN reports but not this year’s. He said women will be taking on more roles because more women are going to college.

BUSINESS   By Tamara Chuang, The Denver Post, Posted: 08/25/2015

See complete article here:  COIN article

Fort Collins spends more, but growth leaves some behind

Regional Economist, Dr. Martin Shields, comments on Fort Collins economics growth.

Fort Collins spends more, but growth leaves some behind

Nicole Scott and her husband, Kyle, scrimped and saved for years during the economic recession.

They had a newborn at home, Kyle was just starting his business as a financial adviser and Nicole was working two jobs while going to nursing school full time.

“We worked hard and made sacrifices,” said Nicole, 30. They put off buying a home, “tightened our belts on things like going out to eat and not taking as many vacations. It wasn’t easy but Fort Collins is such a great town; it was worth it.”

The Scotts, both Fort Collins natives, say they are much better off than they were five years ago. Now with two kids, Kyle’s business is stable, she is director of nursing at a skilled nursing facility and they bought a home two years ago.

“Now that we are more secure and I have gone back to work, we splurge on vacations and going out to eat,” Nicole said.

Still, they’re putting money away knowing the economy is cyclical and life offers no guarantees. “There may be a time when the stock market changes, when the economy changes,” she said. “We have to know we are safe if things change in the future.”

The city, like the Scotts, are doing much better financially. Fort Collins has experienced 27 consecutive months of growth in sales tax revenue, one of the broadest gauges of economic well being. Housing prices are up, construction is booming and the population is growing.

Half of Foothills leased with 8 months to go

Sales tax revenue grew by more than 8 percent from 2013 to 2014, which means people are spending more on everything from necessities to frills.

But as Fort Collins basks in its success, wages remain stagnant, household incomes have declined and families continue to struggle.

“The community is growing but that growth hasn’t necessary trickled down or benefited everyone across the board,” said Martin Shields, Colorado State University’s regional economist. “On average, people might be better off but there are certainly a lot of people who aren’t.”

So, how can Fort Collins lift its economy when wages and household income are not keeping up?

The answer may rest in some combination of consumer confidence, job security, population growth and declining unemployment.

As more people went back to work, sales tax revenue started to grow year over year. Voters in 2010 passed a 0.85 sale tax increase that went into effect in February of 2011. That brought in more revenue from taxes paid on everything from groceries to vehicles to dinners out, but residents also started to up their spending.

From November 2010 through January, sales tax revenue dropped only once — in March 2012 — while Larimer County’s unemployment rate dropped from 7.4 percent at the end of 2010 to 3.1 percent in December, suggesting more people have gone back to work and are confident they’ll keep their jobs.

“If people are spending more, it suggests they’re not very fearful about losing their jobs,” Shields said.

 More jobs mean more paychecks in the community. More paychecks lead to increased spending, even if the wages aren’t as robust as they once were. Economic growth can also come from revenue sources other than paychecks, such as returns on investments, he said.

Nationwide and statewide “most of the economic growth over the last 15 years has gone to upper income households,” Shields said. “We have no reason to think Fort Collins is different. So wages can be pretty flat but still have substantial income growth because people make money in other ways.”

The impact won’t show up in median household incomes, but it is more money spent in the economy, he said.

City has plans for windfall

Sales tax growth netted the city of Fort Collins nearly $6 million in unanticipated revenue, the result of conservative budgeting, said Mike Beckstead, the city’s chief financial officer.

Because the city budgets conservatively, annual sales tax revenue is generally more than what has been budgeted.

“If revenue were to come in under forecast, we would be looking to make spending reductions halfway through the year,” he said. “By budgeting conservatively, we can budget spending with confidence knowing that revenue that comes in above budget will flow to the fund balance and be available for use in future budget discussions.”

Of the $5.9 million in unanticipated revenue, $2.5 million goes to dedicated funds such as Keeping Fort Collins Great, natural areas and capital projects, Beckstead said. The remaining $3.4 million was forecasted in the middle of last year and earmarked for various programs and priorities in the 2015-2016 biennial budget, he said.

The city does not track what specific projects are funded from additional revenue, he said, because the money goes into the general fund and is earmarked from there.

Where are we spending?

Beneficiaries of increased spending are grocery, convenience and liquor stores, restaurants and vehicle purchases, according to revenue figures.

Diners last year spent $27.1 million more on meals at local restaurants than they did in 2013, sending overall restaurant revenue up 7.7 percent.

Fort Collins has always been a city that eats out a lot, but customers upped their discretionary spending at restaurants by $85 million, a 29 percent increase, from 2010 to the end of last year.

After a few lean years during the recession, restaurants roared back, helping fuel healthy sales tax growth.

Auto dealers also benefited and showed a 14.3 percent increase in total sales last year, racking up $221.4 million in sales, up from $194 million the year before.

Twenty years ago, Fort Collins had a handful of high-tech companies that employed thousands in high-paying jobs. The regional economy grew along with the tech industry but risked becoming too dependent on a bubble that would soon burst.

When that happened, companies disappeared, downsized, outsourced, off-shored or moved. Highly paid employees who had worked at the companies for years, sometimes decades, were suddenly unemployed and unable to find work at similar pay.

While new names moved in, they didn’t bring the same number of jobs or income levels lost prior to and during the recession.

Today, growth of retail and service jobs that largely pay less than a living wage are outpacing those high-tech, high-wage jobs of the past.

Last year saw the creation of about 1,000 new retail and restaurant jobs with the opening of Costco, Sierra Trading Post, Dunkin’ Donuts, Conn’s and Trader Joe’s.

Another 1,000 retail jobs will be created when redevelopment of Foothills Mall is complete later this year.

With service and retail jobs replacing higher-paying jobs lost during the recession, and with pay, benefits and hours cut during the downturn slow to come back, more residents are finding themselves trying to hang on to a city that has become home.

Mike Weber left Fort Collins for six years but returned in 1997 to raise his children here. The city’s high quality of life make it a place people want to be despite their struggles, he said.

“We have encountered many struggles and successes over the years, but we are much better off than we were six to eight years ago,” Weber said in a Facebook post.

“At that time, we were barely making it and looking through household goods to see what we could sell to pay the next bill. The desirability of our town creates a difficult situation, much like many of the mountain resort towns. Many folks are willing to work for low pay and pay high housing costs in order to live in a desirable location.”

Others don’t feel as fortunate.

Tori Hofferber said in a Facebook post that the cost of living in Fort Collins keeps going up, yet wages do not. “They’re building new houses and townhomes in the $300,000 to $400,000 price point that people can’t afford.”

She and her husband make “decent money” yet are forced to live with family because the cost of living is too high.

“The cost of living doesn’t leave much room for extra bills to pop up,” she wrote. “If you’re making it, you better hope you don’t have an emergency bill pop up, and by the time rent, utilities and groceries are covered there is not much money or time left to enjoy and relax from all the hard work people put in.”

Faith Fuller added “It’s really hard to make it here. I think with the average income you have to sacrifice and give up a lot of things. Kids that should feel middle class feel poor because in order to pay rent, pay utilities and buy groceries often there is nothing left.

“Families are working harder to survive and having less time to enjoy life and their families.”

Spending in Fort Collins

A look at consumer spending in some of Fort Collins’ largest economic segments over the past five years:

GROCERY/C-STORE/LIQUOR RESTAURANT/BARS GENERAL MERCHANDISE VEHICLE SALES
2014 $488.3 MILLION $380.2 MILLION $323.2 MILLION $221.4 MILLION
2013 $458 million $353.1 million $313.1 million $193.6 million
2012 $429 million $337.9 million $303.5 million $180.6 million
2011* $394.1 million $315.4 million $303 million $164.5 million
2010 $363.8 million $295.6 million $299.4 million $160 million

* sales tax increased

Source: City of Fort Collins

Dr. Weiler gives online presentation on economic growth

Dr. Stephan Weiler to give online presentation on economic growth – Wed., Nov. 5 at 1:00 pm.Economics at Colorado State University

Innovation and Economic Growth in Colorado

Wed., Nov. 5 at 1:00 pm.

Meeting Description:

Innovation is the key to economic growth. Each year, the Colorado Innovation Network issues a report, exploring Colorado’s innovation performance. This report is based an objective analysis, performed by a research team at Colorado State University and lead by Dr. Stephan Weiler.  This webinar will explore the results of this report, including the following findings;

  • Learn about the highly dynamic nature of the Colorado job market and why this is important;
  • Discover how the demographics of Colorado’s workforce is changing;
  • Learn the impact of Colorado’s small bank lending practices on our economy.

Meeting Registration:   https://cc.readytalk.com/cc/s/registrations/new?cid=yud6t4n4kjvj

INNOVATION REPORT – DR. STEPHAN WEILER

Economics at Colorado State UniversityDenver Startup Week

Even Colorado’s failing companies help create jobs in the long-term

– See more at: http://www.cpr.org/news/story/even-colorados-failing-companies-help-create-jobs-long-term#sthash.11nxgUg8.dpuf

Denver Startup Week is underway, an annual celebration of entrepreneurship in the area, and a study released today finds Colorado continues to be a national leader when it comes to start-up businesses. That’s partly because the state is home to a large number of companies that fail, according to the study’s author, CSU economist Stephan Weiler. “In Colorado, the pace of new business creation is especially high, but so is the rate of closure,” the report finds. But, Weiler says, “it hasn’t hurt Colorado in the ways that you might think.”   Weiler’s team looked beyond Colorado, through the United States, and found that places with a lot of openings and closings lead to more job growth long-term. “What we think is happening is that businesses learn from each other,” Weiler says. “The fact that one app didn’t work, but everybody knew what the app looked like, and so other followers can take a look at the app… So the idea is that, you have entrepreneurial pioneers, and even if they fail, and maybe especially if they fail, others can follow.”   And Weiler isn’t talking just about Internet-based start-ups. “Entrepreneurship is really wide, really broad across all the sectors,” he says. “The restaurant industry, for instance — food carts have become a remarkably innovative, creative part of a restaurant scene.”   Overall, the contribution of start-up businesses to the economy is much more substantial than most people realize, Weiler says. “Not the IBMs, not the Googles of the world. It is, in fact, these tiny companies that are sprinting and starting up that are responsible for a huge portion of the job creation,” Weiler says, putting the figure at about 40 percent. The Innovation Report also found one major reason to question whether Colorado’s position as an innovation hub will last long-term. There’s a coming talent shortage, he says, which could affect not just whether there are enough skilled workers for entrepreneurs to hire, but also whether the state will continue to be such a fertile breeding ground for smart new companies.

Right now Colorado has a significant advantage over other states when it comes to the share of the population with at least a bachelor’s degree. But as the older generation retires, “the education advantage has become progressively smaller,” the report states.

“[Colorado] imported a lot of the talent… There was a particular boom in the 1990s.”

Now, he says, many talented people are being lost to retirement: “and so we need to replace them. But the problem is, we aren’t doing a great job of educating our own, so the cohorts that have to replace these folks aren’t nearly as talented as the people that they’re replacing.”

So, he adds, “Colorado may look a lot more average than the position we’re used to.”

 

Listen to the CPR interview with Dr. Weiler here:

http://www.cpr.org/news/story/even-colorados-failing-companies-help-create-jobs-long-term